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The paper examines the theoretical foundations of innovative development of national economies and its impact on international competitiveness. The strengths and weaknesses of Ukraine’s innovative development are analyzed in comparison with European countries. A binary logistic regression model is constructed to classify 39 European economies by level of innovation based on the 12 indicators. Using the backward Wald method, four statistically significant predictors were identified. Model diagnostics and interpretation confirm its adequacy and high predictive power (accuracy 92.3%, AUC = 0.922).